Twin Deficits Revisited: a role for fiscal institutions?
1 : ISEG – School of Economics and Management, Universidade de Lisboa; REM – Research in Economics and Mathematics, UECE
2 : LEM – CNRS (UMR 9221), University of Lille
LEM – CNRS (UMR 9221), University of Lille
3 : International Monetary Fund (IMF), Fiscal Affairs Department
4 : Centre for Globalization and Governance, Nova School of Business and Economics, Campus Campolide, Lisbon, 1099-032 Portugal
5 : Krakow University of Economics
We revisit the twin deficit relationship for a sample of 193 countries over the period 1980-2016, using a panel fixed effect (within-group) estimator, bias-corrected least-squares dummy variable, system GMM, and common correlated effects pooled estimation procedures. The analysis accounts also for the existence of fiscal rules in place, their features, and their interaction with the budget balance. In the absence of fiscal rules, the twin deficit hypothesis is confirmed. The size of the estimated coefficient on the budget balance is between 0.68 and 0.79. However, the existence of fiscal rules strongly reduces the effect of budget balances on current account balances (the coefficient is reduced to 0.1).