Increasing Returns, Balanced-Budget Rules, and Aggregate Fluctuations
Maxime Menuet  1@  , Alexandru Minea  2  , Patrick Villieu  3  
1 : Centre d\'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne
Université Clermont Auvergne : UMR6587, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique : UMR6587
2 : Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international  (CERDI)  -  Site web
CNRS : UMR6587, Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I
65 Bvd Francois Mitterrand - BP 320 63009 CLERMONT FERRAND CEDEX 1 -  France
3 : Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans  (LEO)  -  Site web
Université d'Orléans, CNRS : UMR7322
bat. A Rue de Blois - BP 6739 45067 ORLEANS CEDEX 2 -  France

This paper examines the conditions needed for equilibrium (in)determinacy in growth models characterized by perfect competition and a balanced-budget rule (BBR). Contrary to the literature that assumes zero public debt, we build an endogenous growth model with a generalized BBR authorizing a constant positive debt level. We show that the emergence of aggregate instability dramatically depends on the dynamics of the debt-to- GDP ratio and the strength of social labor externalities. If the labor demand is positively sloped and steeper than the labor supply, two reachable balanced-growth paths appear – a no growth trap, and a positive growth solution – that gives birth to both local and global indeterminacy, hence aggregate instability driven by self-ful lling beliefs (sunspots). In addition, we show that a scal rule such that the tax rate strongly responds to public- debt increases can remove the no-growth trap, and secure positive long-run growth. 


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