Sovereign spreads in emerging economies: do natural resources matter?
Magali Dauvin  1@  
1 : OFCE
Sciences Po

Natural resource prices plunged in 2014, constituing a threat to emerging marketts whose revenues mainly stemed form commodity exports. Within this contxet, the purpose of this paper is to investigate to what extent commodities werereflected in financial markets' assessment of emerging country risk, and if a special premium wasadded for commodity exporters. We focus on 22 emerging markets sovereign spreads and assess how prices are relevant for exporters, as they help relaing the credit constraint in periods of increasing prices. As for resource-poor countries, they are of no importance when assessing sovereign risk. Also, global financial markets do not pay attention to dependence on antural resources although they are now suffering form collapsing. Finally, high variations in commodity prices are not particularly reflected in the way market assess sovereign risk.


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